WHAT IS INSTORE IN 2009?
By Pavitra
2008, so far has been a historic year in terms of Presidential elections and all the financial issues USA and also the entire world has faced.
There are a lot of questions regarding the situation in 2009. Will it be any better or are in store for something worse than this? A group of market specialists and economists were interviewed in this regard. The overall opinion was a divided one with both good and bad things being anticipated for the future. We first look at the people who predict things will not improve and then at people who think things will improve and why they think so. Below are some of their answers:
Jared Bernstein (Economist, Economic Policy Institute): He predicts that the economy in 2009 will be either in a recession or way below the normal growth rate and that GDP will be flat for most of the year.
Mark Zandi (Chief economist, Moody’s Economy.com): He feels that the result of the financial crisis will be seen in 2009 too but is optimistic about the policy response taken to curb the panic. He feels 2009 will not be as difficult but the unemployment rate might peak near 8% by the end of the year.
Maury Harris (Chief U.S. economist, UBS): According to him, things will start improving only by 2010. He too predicts the unemployment rate to increase and the consumer price index to grow by 2.1% in 2009.
Jeremy Grantham (Co-founder, investment firm GMO): He views the S&P drop as favorable to get into equities. He is on the optimistic side of the outlook.
Ed Yardeni (Economist, Yardeni Research): The governments of the world coming together to tackle the global crisis is good news. He predicts that if the government plan works then S&P will reach 1100 to 1200 by mid-2009.
Tom Forester (Manager, Forester Value Fund): He feels that people will come around to look at the good companies and this would boost investor confidence. He is optimistic about S&P reaching 1000 by the year end.
Barry Ritholtz (CEO, research firm Fusion IQ): This CEO feels that this is the best time to take the other side of the trade and buy to ensure a better future. He believes that S&P will gain 30% from its October 2008 lows.
Brian Wesbury (Chief economist, First Trust Advisors): According to him, the pessimistic attitude in the market provides one with the opportunity to make a fortune by investing in things where nobody else is. He believes that the Dow will hit 13,250 by the year-end.
So what will be the fate of 2009? Only time will tell.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/pf/0810/gallery.pros_rate2009.moneymag/index.html
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I too am interested in knowing what 2009 has in store for us. With the way our financial system has been in shambles, and our attempts at preventing a complete economic fall, its all a mystery. Plus, if i knew what was coming, i would know what to invest in!!!
adamparente - November 11, 2008 at 10:26 pm
I sometimes keep old copies of businessweek and similar magazines (I subscribe to moneyandmarkets.com). I occasionally look back at old issues to see predictions made. What I often tend to find is that many of these people make predictions, but then they always say “but” or “however”, and say the opposite, so that they cant be wrong. Sometimes they are just obscure as well. However, it’s still interesting to see how well some of these guys did in fact predict things. You start to find people who become your ‘favorite’. However, “past performance is no guarantee of future performance.”
bkriger - November 18, 2008 at 5:58 pm